January 27, 2014 - Nate Silver

  • 01/27/2014

The NFL prohibits mention of the Super Bowl, Richard Sherman unleashes a post-game rant, the Grammys embrace gay marriage, and FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver discusses sports.

Captioning sponsored by COMEDY CENTRAL

Captioning sponsored by COMEDY CENTRAL

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)>> Stephen: WELCOME TO THE

REPORT, EVERYBODY, THANK YOUSO MUCH, GOOD TO YOU HAVE

WITH US.

>> STEPHEN, STEPHEN,STEPHEN!

STEPHEN, STEPHEN, STEPHEN!

STEPHEN, STEPHEN, STEPHEN!

STEPHEN, STEPHEN, STEPHEN!

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)>> Stephen: LADIES AND

GENTLEMEN, THANK YOU SO MUCH.

OH, OH, YOU CAN TELL THESEPEOPLE ARE ON FIRE.

LET ME-- FOLKS, I GOT A VERYIMPORTANT QUESTION TO ASK

EVERY SINGLE PERSON IN HEREAND WATCHING OUT THERE IN

AMERICA AND AROUND THEWORLD.

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTAND BALL!

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)>> Stephen: I DON'T BLAME YOU

FOLKS, BECAUSE THIS YEARTHEY ARE PLAYING THE GAME

RIGHT HERE IN THE HEART OFNEW YORK CITY, EAST

RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY.

THAT'S RIGHT.

THE EXCELLENT CONTEST OF TOPYARDAGE IS COMING TO MY HOME

TURF AND I CANNOT WAIT UNTILTHE BEST TEAM FROM ONE SIDE

MEETS THE BEST TEAM FROMANOTHER SIDE.

AND RUNS TO THE MOST POINTSOF VICTORY.

(APPLAUSE)I CAN HEAR YOU.

FOLKS, I CAN HEAR YOU OUTTHERE.

I'M SURE SOME OF YOU MAY BEASKING, YOU MAY BE ASKING,

STEPHEN, WHY ARE YOU TALKINGSO VAGUELY ABOUT THIS SUNDAY'S

TIGHT PANTS MAN CLASH.

LAUGHTER)WELL, GREG, IT'S BECAUSE

DESPITE MY LOVE OF AMERICA'SPASTIME, THE NFL IS

NOTORIOUSLY LITIGIOUSTO UNLICENSED BROADCASTERS.

IN FACT I WAS ALL SET TOBRAND THIS WEEK'S SHOW THE

STEPHEN COLBERT SUPER BOWLNFL COVERAGE STARRING

STEPHEN COLBERT AS TERRYBRADSHAW SPONSORED BY

UNDERARMOUR EAT FRESH BUTTHEN I GOT THIS ACTUAL

LETTER FROM THE NETWORK.

IT READS IN PART NFL IS VERYAGGRESSIVE IN PROTECTING

THEIR TRADEMARK.

THEY HAVE SO INTIMIDATED THEWORLD

THAT PEOPLE ARE SHY ABOUTUSING THE LOGO WITHOUT

PERMISSION.

AND IT'S TRUE.

I MEAN JUST LOOK HOWCOMMERCIALS AVOID NAMING

THIS CHAMPIONSHIP.

GET READY FOR THE BIGGAME SALE.

>> IT'S THE BIG GAME SALEEVENT.

>> BIG GAME.

>> BIG GAME SALE.

>> THE BIG GAME, MATTRESSSUPERSALE.

>> ARE YOU READY FOR THE BIGGAME!

(LAUGHTER)>> Stephen: YEAH, THE BIG

GAME.

AND OF COURSE WE ALL KNOW --(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

WE ALL KNOW THE WINNER OFTHE BIG GAME GOES TO

ANIMATED MOUSE THEME PARK.

BUT-- (LAUGHTER)

SPORTS NATION, I'M GOINGTO-- NOT GOING TO JUST GIVE

UP JUST BECAUSE THE NETWORKWON'T LET ME PLAY FOOTAGE OR

SHOW OFFICIAL LOGOS ORMENTION THE NAME OF THE

GAME.

>> I BELIEVE WE CAN COVERTHE STORY LIKE NOBODY ELSE

SIMPLY BY MOVING ONECONSONANT IN THE TITLE.

SO LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, ITIS TIME FOR MY WEEK LONG

COVERAGE OF SUPERB OWL 48.

JIM?

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)WHOOO!

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)WHOOO!

>> Stephen: NATION, THISWEEK SUPERB OWL COVERAGE--

(LAUGHTER)WILL BE AS MAJESTIC AS THE

GREATABYSSIAN LONG EARED

OWL.

NO OTHER NETWORK WILLPROMISE THAT, OKAY.

NOW I'M STILL LOOKING FOR ASPONSOR FOR MY SUPERB OWL

COVERAGE.

MEANTIME I GUESS I WILL JUSTKICKBACK AND ENJOY AN ICE

COLD BUD LITE LIME.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)IS OH, SOMEONE FORGOT TO

REFRIGERATE THAT.

YES, BUD LITE LIME, THEOFFICIAL BEER OF ME LOOKING

FOR A SPONSOR.

WITH LIME.

OF COURSE THIS IS SUPERB OWLNUMBER 48 SO TO HONOR THIS

GRAND TRADITION I'M COOKING UPA BATCH OF MY FAMOUS 48 MEAT

CHILI.

NOT EASY TO FIND THAT MANYMEATS.

MY APOLOGIES TO THE CENTRALPARK ZOO.

NOW ALL WEEK, FOLKS, ALLWEEK I PROMISE YOU WILL HAVE

WORLD-CLASS EXPERTS IN THEGAME THAT MUST NOT BE NAMED.

SUPERSTAR NUMBER CRUNCHERNATE SILVER, PRO BOWL

DEFENSIVE END, HALL OF FAMEWIDE RECEIVER CRIS CARTER

AND NEW ORLEANS SAINTSQUARTERBACK DREW BREES.

PLUS, PLUS MANY OF MYCOMMERCIAL BREAKS WILL FEATURE

PEYTON MANNING EATING ORDRIVING THINGS.

(LAUGHTER)BUT FOLKS, AS MUCH AS I

ENJOY ENORMOUS MEN CRASHINGINTO EACH OTHER WITH SKULL

SHATTERING FORCE, ONE MANHAS TURNED THIS GAME VERY

UGLY.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS CORNERBACKRICHARD SCHERRMAN.

-- SCHERRMAN-- SHERMAN.

>> WELL DONE, OKAY.

FOLKS, WE KNOW THE STORY.

THIS GUY COMBINES THE TEMPEROF RUSSEL CROWE, THE

HUBRIS OF KANYE WEST AND THEHAIR STYLE OF THE PREDATOR.

NOW GRANTED, I WILL GRANTYOU THIS, I WILL GRANT YOU

THIS.

SHERMAN CLENCHED THE NFCCHAMPIONSHIP GAME BY

SWATTING A PASS MEANT FORSAN FRANCISCO 49ER MICHAEL

CRABTREE INTO THE ARMS OFHIS TEAMMATE FOR A

GAME-WINNING INTERCEPTION.

LEGALLY, NOW, I CANNOT SHOWYOU THE ACTUAL NFL FOOTAGE,

BUT TRUST ME, IT LOOKED ALITTLE SOMETHING LIKE THIS.

>> CRABTREE, LOOKINGUP-- THIS GAME IS OVER.

>> Stephen: WHAT AGAME, WHAT A GAME.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)>> Stephen: THAT'S GOOD.

THAT'S GOOD.

BUT JUST LISTEN TO SHERMAN'SRANT AFTER THE GAME.

>> I'M THE BEST ONE IN THEGAME.

WHEN YOU PAIR ME WITH A SORRYRECEIVER LIKE

CRABTREE THAT IS WHAT YOU'REGOING TO GET! DON'T YOU

EVER TALK ABOUT ME!

(APPLAUSE)(LAUGHTER)

>> Stephen: IS THE SCARYBLACK MAN GONE?

NOW FOLKS, I GOT TO TELL YOU,I AM NOT THE ONLY ONE

FREAKED OUT BY THIS.

TWITTER WAS ALL ATWITTER.

>> THERE WERE THE USUALTROLLS WHO IMMEDIATELY

EMERGED ON TWITTER TO DEPLOYTHE "N" WORD AND ALL MANNER

OF MONKEY, GORILLA AND APEANALOGIES.

>> MANY ARE CALLING HIM ATHUG.

>> ONE CALLING HIM ASTRAIGHT THUG.

>> Stephen: AN HE IS A THUG.

I MEAN JUST LOOK AT HOWSHERMAN HUNTED DOWN MICHAEL

CRABTREE AFTER THE GAME TORUDELY

CONGRATULATEHIM.

>> HELL OF A GAME, HELL OF AGAME!

>> Stephen: SO FOLKS I GOTTO TELL YOU, IT IS SO

REFRESHING TO SEE THAT AFTERBEING ASSAULTED WITH THE

OFFER OF A HANDSHAKECRABTREE STILL SHOWED THE

CLASS TO HIGH FIVE SHERMAN'SFACE.

BUT NO SURPRISE-- NOSURPRISE WHEN IT COMES TO

THUGS. THIS THUG REFUSES TOTAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR US

CALLING HIM A THUG.

>> ALL THE BACKLASH, THEWORD THUG, DOES THAT BOTHER

YOU.

>> THE ONLY REASON ITBOTHERS ME IS BECAUSE IT

SEEMS LIKE IT IS THEACCEPTED WAY OF CALLING

SOMEBODY THE "N" WORDNOWADAYS?

>> Stephen: REALLY, THUG ISTHE ACCEPTED WAY OF CALLING

SOMEBODY THE "N" WORD?

I AM SORRY BUT I DON'TBELIEVE THERE IS ANY

ACCEPTED WAY OF CALLINGSOMEBODY THE "N" WORD.

THAT IS WHERE YOU AND IPARTWAYS, MR. SHERMAN.

YOU ARE A RACIST.

(APPLAUSE)BESIDES, WHEN I USE THE WORD

THUG OR ANY OTHER WORDFOR THAT MATTER, IT CAN NOT

BE RACIST BECAUSE I DO NOTSEE RACE.

I HAVE EVOLVED BEYONDRACISM.

I DON'T EVEN KNOW MY OWNRACE.

PEOPLE TELL ME I'M WHITE ANDI BELIEVE THEM BECAUSE I

THOUGHT MACKLEMORE DESERVEDTHOSE GRAMMYS.

WELL, FOLKS, THIS WEEKEND-- (APPLAUSE)

FOLKS THIS WEEKEND THE NFLMADE SHERMAN PAY THE PRICE

FOR HIS BAD BEHAVIOR.

>> THE NFL FINDING SEATTLESEAHAWKS CORNERBACK RICHARD

SHERMAN $7,875 FORUNSPORTSMAN LIKE CONDUCT.

>> Stephen: NOW THAT FIGURE OF$7,875 SOUNDS BOTH ODDLY

ARBITRARY AND STRANGELYSPECIFIC.

(LAUGHTER)BUT IT'S ONLY ONE OF THOSE.

LET ME BREAK DOWN SHERMAN'SITEMIZED BILL WHICH I HAVE

RIGHT HERE.

IT IS, LET'S SEE, IT'S $300FOR TAUNTING SAN FRANCISCO

WITH THE SIGN FOR CHOKING.

THEN WE HAVE $40 FOR CINEMAX.

$35 TICKETMASTER CONVENIENCECHARGE.

AND OH, OKAY, THE FINAL$7500 IS FOR TAKING A

TOBBLERONE FROM THE HOTEL

WELCOME BACK, EVERYBODY, MYGUEST TONIGHT USES

STATISTICS TO PREDICT SPORTSOUTCOMES, A FANCY WAY OF

SAYING HE'S A BOOKIE.

PLEASE WELCOME NATE SILVER.

WHOOO!

>> NATE, THANKS SO MUCH,HAVE A SEAT, MY MAN.

ALL RIGHT.

NATE, THANKS SO MUCH FORJOINING ME.

WHAT AN HONOR TO HAVE YOUHERE.

>> THANKS FOR COMING BACK TOTHE SHOW.

NOW EVERYBODY KNOWS YOU RANTHE 538 BLOG AT THE "NEW

YORK TIMES".

>> FOR SURE.

>> THAT WAS THE-- THAT WASTHE POLITICAL BLOG TO GO TO

TO FIGURE OUT WHO WILL BETHE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE

UNITED STATES.

START OUT WITH SPORTSSTATISTICS, TO POLITICS, TO

YOU BACK TO SPORTS.

WHY 538 WHEN YOU'RE GOING TOESPN.

IS THAT HOW MANY THERE ARENOW, 538.

>> WHY GO INTO SPORTS.

>> WELL, WE LOVE SPORTS, AGREAT WAY TO TEACH PEOPLE

ABOUT MATH AND STATISTICSBUT MOSTLY IT'S A LOT OF FUN

AND WE'RE SPORTS FANS.

PUT IT LIKE THIS, THERE IS ALOT OF COVERAGE YOU SEE IN

POLITICS THAT'S REALLY JUSTGOSSIP, ABOUT A SERIOUS

SUBJECT.

AND WE WANT TO TAKE A FUNSUBJECT AND BE OVERLY

SERIOUS ABOUT WITH IT ATTIMES.

>> BUT CAN YOU BE, CAN YOUBE TOO SERIOUS ABOUT

FOOTBALL IN AMERICA?

BECAUSE I MEAN WHAT HAPPENSIF WE WEREN'T HOLDING THE

GAME THIS WEEKEND?

WHAT HAPPENS IF WE DIDN'TFIND OUT ABOUT WHICH ANIMAL

WAS GOING TO BE USED TO SELLWHICH BEER?

>> IT'S LIKE REALITY TV FORMEN, BASICALLY.

BUT YOU KNOW, IT'S A BIGCULTURAL THING.

AND I DON'T KNOW, I LIKEFOOTBALL.

>> YOU GOT VERY GOOD AT THAT,YOU KNOW, PREDICTING WHO

WOULD BE WINNING IN BASEBALLBASED ON THE STATISTICS.

CAN YOU DO THE SAME THINGWITH FOOTBALL.

CAN YOU APPLY THE SAMESTATISTICAL ANALYSIS.

>> THE PROBLEM WITH THISGAME THIS YEAR IS THAT BOTH

TEAMS ARE REALLY GOOD.

IN FACT, THIS IS -->> WHAT ARE THE ODDS.

>> WHAT ARE THE NUMBERS.

>> SO THE 8th TIME ACCORDINGTO MY COLLEAGUE, NEIL PAYNE

OF 538, THE 8th TIME WERE THETWO BEST TEAMS HAVE ACTUALLY

MET IN THE SUPER BOWL.

USUALLY SOMEBODY GETS UP SETALONG THE WAY.

IT MAKES MY JOB REALLYTOUGH.

IN POLITICS I'M TRYING TOPOINT TO THE OBVIOUS THING

AND YOU LOOKED REALLY SMARTFOR-- THIS GAME IS-- I'M NOT

SURE I WANT TO PLACE MONEYON IT AT ALL FRANKLY.

>> YOU MEAN HAVE YOUPERCENTAGE, WHO IS GOING TO

WIN.

>> SO THE NUMBERS SAY IT'SGOING TO BE A TIE REALLY, SO

NO ONE WINS.

>> A YEAR AGO I PREDICTEDSEATTLE WIN SUPER BOWL.

I'M GOING TO STICK WITH THATAND SAY I WAS PRESSURED A

YEAR EARLIER.

>> OKAY, ALL RIGHT.

>> BUT IT'S GOING TO BECLOSE.

>> YOU WOULD THINK IT'SGOING TO BE CLOSE.

>> YEAH.

>> NO, YOU WOULD BECAUSE IDON'T ACTUALLY-- I

DON'T-- OKAY.

SO YOU KNOW, WHY DO YOU WANTTO DO TO FOOTBALL WHAT YOU

DID TO POLITICS WHICH IS TORUIN IT WITH ACCURACY?

>> IF YOU GET AS GOOD WITHFOOTBALL THEN YOU ARE WHAT

POLITICS AND IT WON'T BELIKE ON ANY GIVEN SUNDAY A

TEAM COULD WIN.

WILL YOU JUST READ 538 ANDSAY IT'S GOING TO BE SEATTLE,

LET'S GO TO BED.

>> I THINK THE WORLDACTUALLY IS PRETTY

UNPREDICTABLE PLACE.

INCLUDING IN SPORTS.

I MEAN YOU KNOW.

>> BUT YOU NAILED 2008 AND2012.

>> I THINK PEOPLE ESPECIALLYMAYBE IN THE MEDIA AREN'T

VERY GOOD AT UNDERSTANDINGWHAT'S PREDICTABLE AND WHAT

ISN'T.

POLITICS, WE HAVE LIKELITERALLY LIKE HUNDREDS OF

HOLES, THE BATTLE WITH THEHEAD AND ALL THOSE THINGS

WAS KIND OF POINTING OUT THEOBVIOUS.

>> ONE THING YOU GOT UP ON538 ALREADY ABOUT THE GAME

IS YOU HAVE GOT WEATHERSTATS UP THERE.

>> YEAH.

>> A 21% CHANCE THAT IT WILLBE 25 DEGREES OR BELOW, A

31% CHANCE IT WILL BE WIND OF15 MILES PER HOUR OR MORE.

YOU KNOW WE HAVE THENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,

RIGHT?

>> SO WE WERE USING THEIRDATA AND IF YOU WANT TO GET

TECHNICAL HERE.

>> Stephen: I THINK THAT'SALL WE'RE GOING TO DO HERE.

>> SO UP UNTIL ABOUT 10DAYS.

>> YEAH.

>> UP UNTIL 10 DAYS BEFORETHE EVENT, THEN THESE

LONG-TERM AVERAGES DO ASWELL AS ANYTHING ELSE.

>> RIGHTMENT THEY MIGHT DO15 DAY FORECAST LIKE THE FT

S1 MILLION SUNSCREEN DOESN'TREALLY GIVE YOU ANY EXTRA

ADDED ADVANTAGE BUT NOW YOUACTUALLY HAVE MODELS THAT

LOOK AT THE ACTUAL WEATHERSYSTEMS, CLOUDS AND SO FORTH.

AND ARE MUCH MORE ACCURATENOW THAT WE ARE --

>> OF THE BIG GAME.

>> SO YOU SAID THAT NOT ONLYIS THIS GOING TO BE A CLOSE

GAME, BUT THIS COULD BE SORTOF A BUSH VERSUS GORE GAME.

>> THIS IS A 2000 SUPER BOWL,I THINK POTENTIALLY.

>> DOES THAT MEAN THAT ONETEAM WILL SCORE MORE POINTS

BUT THE SUPREME COURT WILLGIVE THE TROPHY TO THE OTHER

TEAM?

>>(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

>> IT MIGHT BE A REFEREECONTROVERSY, PERHAPS.

>> WITHOUT DO YOU LIKE HAVETHE BEST COMMERCIAL THIS

WEEKEND?

>> YOU KNOW, I DON'T WATCHTHE COMMERCIAL.

I ACTUALLY WATCH IT FOR THEGAME.

>> WELL, NATE, THANK YOU SOMUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> OKAY.

>> Stephen: NATE SILVER,ESPN, 538 BLOG.

CHECK IT OUT.

WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK.

>> Stephen: THAT'S IT FORTHE REPORT,

EVERYBODY, GOOD NIGHT.